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NFL 'TNF' Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots betting picks, preview
New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4). Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'TNF' Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots betting picks, preview

This week's "Thursday Night Football" matchup will tell us who the true football sickos are, as the Pittsburgh Steelers will face off against the New England Patriots with a laughably low total of 30. The atrocious matchup won't stop us from betting on the game, though, so let's try to make the best of this slop.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots betting odds, preview

Spread: Steelers -6, Over/under: 30, Moneyline: Steelers -255 | Patriots +210

It's hard to imagine a worse prime-time game to kick off the NFL Week 14 slate. Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers are hosting Bailey Zappe and the Patriots in what could be a race to 10 points. If the total doesn't move up before kickoff, it will mark the lowest NFL total since 1993 and the seventh over/under ever to close at 30 or below. 

But is this total somehow too high? The Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in scoring offense, and they've managed to score just 13 total points over their last three games. That included a 6-0 shutout last week against an abysmal Los Angeles Chargers defense.

As for the Steelers, they haven't scored more than 10 points in any of Trubisky's three appearances this year. The offense was already struggling with Kenny Pickett running the show, but it has to be downgraded with the change under center. 

'Thursday Night Football' betting picks

Patriots +6 (-112 DraftKings)

We're not touching the total in this game, but the Patriots have to be valuable as six-point underdogs with an over/under of 30. 

As bad as New England's offense has been over the last three games, the defense has been equally as good. The Patriots didn't give up more than 10 points or 264 yards of offense in that stretch, and they kept Justin Herbert and company out of the end zone last week despite the offense sabotaging the team at every turn.

The Patriots will be able to shut down Pittsburgh's running game and force Trubisky to beat them through the air, which he won't be able to do.  

Bailey Zappe under 154.5 passing yards (-110 FanDuel)

This number is ridiculously low, but there are two ways we can cash this bet. Zappe threw for only 141 yards last week against a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed. Why would this be any different?

There's also a chance Zappe doesn't play the entire game. If he stinks it up in the first half, Bill Belichick won't hesitate to go back to Mac Jones for the second half. 


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