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The top first-round postseason matchups based on play-in outcomes

Nikola Jokic and LeBron James Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA's top first-round postseason matchups dependent on play-in outcomes

By Sean Keane | Last updated 4/14/24

The playoff seeding is set, but the top seeds won't know who they're playing until the play-in games are finished on Friday. Here's our best guess to what those matchups will be and our ranking of which of the series are going to be the most entertaining.

1. Denver Nuggets (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

We don't yet know if the Lakers will defeat the New Orleans Pelicans Tuesday and capture the No. 7 seed, but after Sunday's dismantling of New Orleans on their home court, it's looking unlikely that the Lakers lose to the Pels.

That sets up a probable rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals, which experts have called (both seriously and sarcastically) the "most competitive sweep in NBA playoffs history."

Denver also swept the Lakers in the season series, but the in-season tournament champions have proved that they're dangerous in big games. Plus, this series pits Nikola Jokic, poised to win his third MVP in four years, against all-time great LeBron James and all-time really good Anthony Davis. The Nuggets should still be confident, but let's just say they'd be a lot more confident if they hadn't blown the top seed Friday night.

2. Boston Celtics (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Anything could happen in the one-game Sixers-Heat contest, so we're picking a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Boston looks like the far superior team, but that's also how they looked last season when the Heat had to climb out of the play-in tournament. This year's Heat no longer have Gabe Vincent or Max Strus, but they now have former Celtic Terry Rozier on board, likely seeking revenge against his old team. And don't think Miami's Kevin Love has forgotten that Boston's Kelly Olynyk knocked him out of the playoffs in 2015.

Let's just hope Jimmy Butler and Mark Wahlberg's friendship survives the series.

3. New York Knicks (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

Philly has to get past Miami to reach this matchup, but we think a rested Joel Embiid will be too much for Miami. This sets up an "Acela Series" between two teams located an 81-mile train ride apart. New York is loaded with players from Villanova University in Philadelphia, plus the Knicks have been quietly hoping to trade for Embiid for years.

Knicks star Jalen Brunson even grew up in southern New Jersey, essentially the middle ground between Sixers Republic and Knickerbocker Nation. It should be quality basketball and an even higher-quality regional rivalry.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (8)

It's hard to expect this year's Warriors to win two elimination games in a week, but this team actually has a better record than last year's squad that made the second round. The Sacramento Kings are reeling after two massive injuries to Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk and the Warriors won two playoff games on the road there last year. Meanwhile the Pelicans game is a tossup, but we think New Orleans will be disheartened after two straight home losses to the Lakers.

OKC-Golden State would be a revival of last decade's rivalry. The Thunder blew a 3-1 lead to the Warriors in the 2016 Conference Finals, then lost Durant to the Warriors in free agency. Now, two-time OKC player Chris Paul is on the Warriors and Golden State is the underdog. This series will be very loud and even with Durant playing in Phoenix, expect a lot of cupcake signs. And a number of deep three-pointers from Steph Curry, if only to recapture the old magic.